Defender prices headed downward

[LazyRabbit]

I always watching different auctions so sales for these defenders and other vintage 4x4s. What seemed to be slight dip is starting to look a little more than that.

NAS Defender 110s are not meeting their reserves and topping out in the 80k range, which is a marked drop from 120k-140k they have sold before.

ROW 110s are sitting at 40k range and sitting longer in the 30s. Seen a few come and go in the high 20s via private party. Also a lot of 110 always for sale. The market might be saturated?

D90s are sinking fast in price. A lot for sale and few seems to sell in mid to upper 20s

I’m seeing dip the Land Cruiser space as well, even for new ones. What was going for 40 is now at least 5k less and I’ve seen a few go for more. The vintage ones have seen much a dip (except with undesirable Engines)as there hasn’t been such a flood of them, I guess.

Obviously cheap money has gone away with increased rates and people are becoming more frugal.

I would love to hear your opinion and hear your observations.

 

[rocky]

Our market is very reliant on plenty of excess or free cash with no better place for it to go.

 

[brycee22]

Probably a couple factors at play here. Obviously the economy/inflation issue is buttoning up some wallets. On top of that, I think a lot more shops/importers took notice of the Defender craze over the last 7 years which led to a lot more making it stateside. Now throw on top of that, that every year a new model year is available for the US to import (noting the 25 year import rule) which means we're getting a better vehicles every year (subjective I suppose). During the craze, finding even a used 200tdi motor was difficult and expensive. Now some folks are almost giving those away in favor of engine swaps (LS's, 292's, OM606, R2.8, etc). I personally fall into that category as I installed a OM606 into mine. And during Covid, 'overlanding' was almost a cool-kid-fad that brought a lot of people into the 4x4 world.

So more availability, better vehicle configuration options, a post-covid diminishing interest in camping/overlanding, and a tight economy has probably pushed the value down a bit. I also own another classic vehicle (1969 Camaro RS/SS) and I've noticed that the value has stayed pretty flat for the last year or two, maybe even a small dip.

Not sure where the bottom is on Defender values, but I would guess this downward trend might continue for awhile as we import newer vehicles, and the economy is still taking a snooze. Bummer too because I was considering selling mine, but have too much into it that I'll never get back (nor was a full ROI expected though), but no harm in keeping it for awhile as I still enjoy it.

 

[expanse]

I've been seeing a considerable pucker in available toy budgets.

Im expecting a decent bump in the road this summer/fall related to this. but thats all just a gut feeling.

 

[mitherial]

Also keep in mind that Land Rover manufactured many fewer trucks in the 80s and early 90s as even the coil sprung vehicles sold very poorly until the advent of the actually functional 200/300 TDI engines (which basically saved the vehicle from being cancelled). Peak classic Land Rover production was the mid-60s through 70s for the export market (mostly to former British colonies) until the Japanese 4x4s began absolutely trouncing LR on the reliability and value fronts around 1980.

 

[ionfender]

I always watching different auctions so sales for these defenders and other vintage 4x4s. What seemed to be slight dip is starting to look a little more than that.

NAS Defender 110s are not meeting their reserves and topping out in the 80k range, which is a marked drop from 120k-140k they have sold before.

ROW 110s are sitting at 40k range and sitting longer in the 30s. Seen a few come and go in the high 20s via private party. Also a lot of 110 always for sale. The market might be saturated?

D90s are sinking fast in price. A lot for sale and few seems to sell in mid to upper 20s

I’m seeing dip the Land Cruiser space as well, even for new ones. What was going for 40 is now at least 5k less and I’ve seen a few go for more. The vintage ones have seen much a dip (except with undesirable Engines)as there hasn’t been such a flood of them, I guess.

Obviously cheap money has gone away with increased rates and people are becoming more frugal.

I would love to hear your opinion and hear your observations.

1.) Interest rates and (most) asset values have an inverse relationship - especially assets that are discretionary (for most people an OG Defender is very, very discretionary).

2.) COVID (for a variety of reasons) created a false reality for the value of many assets, especially collector vehicles. Excess free time, free money, and rising stock portfolio and asset (bitcoin) values fueled this false reality.

3.) Uncertainty about the future of the economy, jobs, and the stock market

4.). It’s easy for someone that wants a classic 4x4 to “switch” into something less expensive when cash flow is a bit more tight. Maybe they have a strong preference for a Defender, but instead of spending $40k on a 90 or 110, a $20k Scout/Jeep/Cruiser may scratch the itch.

It’s also possible that the market is getting flooded with Defenders, but I have no hard data or way to quantify that.

There may also have been temporary interest from new Pretender buyers to buy an OG Defender (this also coincided with COVID)…my sense is that for most buyers of a Pretender, once they drove the OG and owned it for a short amount of time they probably realized the OG version wasn’t a great fit for them. This is pure speculation on my part, and somewhat cynical, I realize that.

 

[TX246]

I have a high credit score and bought a Chevy Tahoe in January of this year. Was quoted an interest rate of 10.2%. Was able to get it down a bit.

I have a new G63 that should come in next month. The preferred interest rate is 9.99% through Mercedes.

This is crazy. Eliminates lots of buyers for fun stuff. Who wants to catch the knife as it is falling?

 

[Tarheeld]

On way or another you almost always pay the difference in a lower priced truck in the first year of ownership

 

[erover82]

This is crazy. Eliminates lots of buyers for fun stuff. Who wants to catch the knife as it is falling?

I'm amazed anyone finances anything in this financial climate. I'd rather drive a clapped-out POS indefinitely than shell out 10% rate on a liability.

 

[ionfender]

I'm amazed anyone finances anything in this financial climate. I'd rather drive a clapped-out POS indefinitely than shell out 10% rate on a liability.

Agreed, but you/we are in the minority on that.

 

[pfshoen]

Picture very well painted above.
A rule I have regarding trends: They almost never continue indefinitely although people almost always assume they will.

 

[terryjm1]

Just personal observations but over the years the collector car market is among the very first to show “weakness” with a coming slowing economy or even the perception of a slowing economy. IMHO, most people buying a collector car can certainly afford to keep buying but don’t. Which, again in my humble opinion, is exactly the goal of raising interest rates, to slow discretionary spending, particularly by the upper middle class where most discretionary spending happens. Everyone below upper middle class are the engine that drives the economy. Upper middle class steers the economy and the truly upper class lays out the road map. Average Joe can’t change their spending habits because they mostly buy essentials such as food and make larger purchases that are unavoidable, such as a new refrigerator or a car that is replacing one that has to be replaced. The job market is remarkably very strong, among the strongest ever. If discretionary spending doesn’t slow it’s hard to see inflation getting better and interest rates will stay up. I have definitely all but halted my discretionary spending.

 

[Wolf Fabrication]

When I bought my new Defender the JLRNA finance guy admitted that if you have a higher credit score and reported income, you will typically get a HIGHER interest rate as the banks know you can afford higher rates. It's inverse of what you typically think.

 

[dcg]

Also keep in mind that Land Rover manufactured many fewer trucks in the 80s and early 90s as even the coil sprung vehicles sold very poorly until the advent of the actually functional 200/300 TDI engines (which basically saved the vehicle from being cancelled). Peak classic Land Rover production was the mid-60s through 70s for the export market (mostly to former British colonies) until the Japanese 4x4s began absolutely trouncing LR on the reliability and value fronts around 1980.

Enjoying this thread... but this is an off topic fun fact: I was reading an article in Legend (LRSOC) about an overland trip that took place in the mid-50's. The team borrowed two 107 PUs from Land-Rover. Upon their return, Land-Rover was irritated at the condition and damage that was done over the duration of the trip, the team shot back and said, and I'm paraphrasing, "Make your vehicles more reliable, that's why everyone drives Toyotas in X because they are reliable". I think the challenge from the Japanese brands started much earlier and by 1960, it was only a matter of time.

 

[pfshoen]

NAS have always followed their own rules regards values, so may not be wholly representative of the overall Def trend. But circumstances may be changing the NAS value curve.
Until around 2008, NAS were the only Def type trucks in the USA (1983 + 25 years)
Until around 2015, NAS were the only Defs in the USA (1990 + 25 years)
The value in NAS is now largely dependent on being in original specification, since they were a limited edition. Few remain as such. High end rebuilds of ROW trucks can match/exceed NAS spec, except for being CA legal. (Can be converted to CA legal, but at substantial expense.)
The CA emissions decal is the NAS trump card and there's a lot of value there, no question.
I don't pretend to know the future, just offering some food for thought.

 

[mitherial]

Enjoying this thread... but this is an off topic fun fact: I was reading an article in Legend (LRSOC) about an overland trip that took place in the mid-50's. The team borrowed two 107 PUs from Land-Rover. Upon their return, Land-Rover was irritated at the condition and damage that was done over the duration of the trip, the team shot back and said, and I'm paraphrasing, "Make your vehicles more reliable, that's why everyone drives Toyotas in X because they are reliable". I think the challenge from the Japanese brands started much earlier and by 1960, it was only a matter of time.

"I think the challenge [to Land Rover] from the Japanese brands started much earlier and by 1960, it was only a matter of time."

Fair enough. My figures above are from the James Taylor Land Rover books, and he emphasizes that the "last straw" was when government/NGO contracts stopped ordering Rovers about '79.