Trump

KGH

Well-known member
COIN is a great place to practice and learn, but these days we're studying the Somme since near peers fire arty by the division level and make grid squares go away.

- TRANSCOM...

- not an existential...

Flynn: Liked him in Tampa. Prob too much of a warrior for DIA. You know, that "sister-service" who has expanded god knows how much. Funny to work with those who have two masters, the COCOM and DIA. Not reading the same OPLANS, thats for sure.

I still believe in COIN, but like Commies and Capitalists, it has never been effectively employed. And we know where Nagl ended up, Backwater Prep. How bout we try it without the FM? A-la we all fight the same fight. Shining cities on a hill (FOBs, DCs, etc) populated by us and our overpaid crooked "allies" serve to do nothing but further alienate the populace.

Of course TRANSCOM speaks to their own end game. It equals resourcing.

Had an opportunity to have a small group meeting with Kilcullen a few weeks ago. Respect him immensely. Good man. I left with the impression that he too does not see certain things as existential threat.

The problem with the west declaring that; it goes counter to the enemy's threat doctrine. They tell us they are an existential threat. Their authoritative doctrine speaks to it. I enjoyed:

http://unconstrainedanalytics.org/report-strategic-overview-of-the-threat/

Another great thinker is John Robb at Global Guerrillas.

I am not worried about peers or near peers, OK there is one non-EU NATO member that makes me loose sleep.

We can go cold agin WRT Russia, or we can actually work not with, but along side them. Am I the only one who remember what was discussed between USSR/US when it all fell apart? Neither is sticking to the agreements.

I am afraid of North Kores, yes. Straights of Hormuz, yes. Balkan tinderbox, yes. Indonesia, parts of South Am.

Hopefully the Chinese will keep it together, or have enough internal strife to focus on their own situation. Economically, a hit to China makes a dangerous China.

The Russians are as happy as we are playing Whack-A-Gazprom route to market in Syria, Ukraine, etc. Business is good for both Leviathans when the proxies are in play.
 
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Ray_G

Well-known member
Flynn: Liked him in Tampa. Prob too much of a warrior for DIA. You know, that "sister-service" who has expanded god knows how much. Funny to work with those who have two masters, the COCOM and DIA. Not reading the same OPLANS, thats for sure.

I still believe in COIN, but like Commies and Capitalists, it has never been effectively employed. And we know where Nagl ended up, Backwater Prep. How bout we try it without the FM? A-la we all fight the same fight. Shining cities on a hill (FOBs, DCs, etc) populated by us and our overpaid crooked "allies" serve to do nothing but further alienate the populace.

Of course TRANSCOM speaks to their own end game. It equals resourcing.

Had an opportunity to have a small group meeting with Kilcullen a few weeks ago. Respect him immensely. Good man. I left with the impression that he too does not see certain things as existential threat.

The problem with the west declaring that; it goes counter to the enemy's threat doctrine. They tell us they are an existential threat. Their authoritative doctrine speaks to it. I enjoyed:

http://unconstrainedanalytics.org/report-strategic-overview-of-the-threat/

Another great thinker is John Robb at Global Guerrillas.

I am not worried about peers or near peers, OK there is one non-EU NATO member that makes me loose sleep.

We can go cold agin WRT Russia, or we can actually work not with, but along side them. Am I the only one who remember what was discussed between USSR/US when it all fell apart? Neither is sticking to the agreements.

I am afraid of North Kores, yes. Straights of Hormuz, yes. Balkan tinderbox, yes. Indonesia, parts of South Am.

Hopefully the Chinese will keep it together, or have enough internal strife to focus on their own situation. Economically, a hit to China makes a dangerous China.

The Russians are as happy as we are playing Whack-A-Gazprom route to market in Syria, Ukraine, etc. Business is good for both Leviathans when the proxies are in play.

I don't know that Flynn's warrior-ness was the primary issue at DIA. To that point given that he saw very limited time on the ground during his career I think warrior is a bit of a stretch but perhaps we can use it broadly. More like the adage that just because you can be an a-hole doesn't mean you should. Believe me, LtGen Stewart who succeeded him there can definitely be one but isn't getting the same resistance.

I also bristle at his fans pointing toward the 2010 'Fixing Intel' paper as something revolutionary. Guess my peer group, out of the wire doing stuff as part of an outdoor MOS, were well ahead of their time circa 04/05/06. Then again a lot of people think the Surge is what turned the tide in Iraq too; but they were also people who I didn't see actually out in Fallujah and Ramadi.

That unconstrained analytics piece...just the abstract was a disjointed read, in the end they are existential because they say they are existential? Not sure I buy off on that, and if we give them enough time they'll collapse on themselves, again and this time it will be Sunnis that put holes in their heads (again) with far less help from us, thankfully.

As far as TRANSCOM goes I didn't find the Commander's perspective to be borne out of a need for resources ala the GCC's; he has the beauty of being the provider of critical enablers-his perspective is just math, you want global lift? Big wing tanking? Multi-modal shipping? That comes at a price and it is one that we haven't paid enough attention to over the past 15 years that will, eventually, hurt us. Without specifics I'd just say that his capabilities are one of the key areas that seperates us from the rest of the world. Nobody else can do force projection like we can, but when we risk that we're putting a lot at risk.

I do find the notion that you don't worry about Russia interesting, of all the 4+1 entities, that is the one most see as most likely to result in near term conflict. Of course our president-elect could shift that to Iran, which would be great...may as well get the country in between knocked out too. North Korea, I'm happy to not get there till late in the party.

The best thing about Russia right now is their single resouce economy plays right into one of our best current strengths. Everytime the price of oil goes up, the opportunity to drill here increases and that brings technical incentive to improve efficiency (and safety, and environmental stuff) which means that over time it strengthens our pursuit of energy independence/net energy export. It will be interesting to see if Russia plays gas games this winter just to be...Russia.
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javelinadave

Administrator
Staff member
The US government has been trying to get rid of Fidel Castro for 57 years. Trump is elected and he is dead in three weeks. Coincidence?
 

Ray_G

Well-known member
The US government has been trying to get rid of Fidel Castro for 57 years. Trump is elected and he is dead in three weeks. Coincidence?

Fights capitalism his whole life...dies on Black Friday. CIA's plot to kill him finally comes to fruition?
 

Daddymow

Well-known member
What what WHAT!?! Castro is dead? I better check on my Cuban buddies, they are probably already on their Contenders and See Vees heading across the Gulf Stream for the Motherland. This will no doubt get interesting.
 

Ray_G

Well-known member
Truly great news, particularly from the perspective that if another country saw the transition and the...nature of the next administration...as breathing room to play around having Gen Mattis as SecDef should give them serious pause. He will have his hand's full trying to modernize the force while simultaneously keeping it engaged & ready but if there is one thing we can be certain of it is that if we head to a conflict we'll have a civilian leader at the helm who will bring the full weight of DoD to bear.

Personally I also think he'll be a great brake against some of other picks, like the NatSec Advisor, or rather I'll use Tom Rick's words:
As I’ve said before, even in retirement, Mattis having worn four stars will outrank Lieutenant General Flynn’s retired three stars. Mattis also is far smarter, and better educated, than Flynn. That will help contain Flynn.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/21...-means-for-us-for-the-military-and-for-trump/
 

chris snell

Administrator
Callsign: NW5W
Staff member
I wonder what this means for future COIN operations. I assumed that a Trump presidency would mean more decisive kinetic action and fewer long-term engagements and I wonder how Mattis would shape future decisions on the role of our forces in the Middle East.
 

Ray_G

Well-known member
I think Chaos will be holding some clinics on how kinetic action is rarely decisive, and that pulling back from the world always comes with a price that will get paid sooner, or later-& history has shown that the later cost is usually much higher. His knowledge is really the best part about him getting the job, how much that will resonate with the politicians remains to be seen but that is always true.

I also think the sheer weight of the reality of the job hasn't hit the incoming administration, but it is coming.
 

chris snell

Administrator
Callsign: NW5W
Staff member
I'm stunned by the Manning commutation. Incredibly disappointed. Six years does not feel just.

Interested in thoughts from the N-R crowd.
 

javelinadave

Administrator
Staff member
I'm not surprised and he still has 48 more hours to do more destructive shit. Let's see if he pardons Bowe Bergdahl too. SMH
 
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chris snell

Administrator
Callsign: NW5W
Staff member
Honestly, I would have rather seen Bowe get a pardon than Manning get the commutation.

This feels more like further promulgation of the LGBT-military agenda than it does a statement on appropriate justice for Manning's crimes.
 

FlyersFan76

Well-known member
Nothing shocks me anymore.

The questioning that DeVos received yesterday was embarrassing. Because her wealth has anything to do with the job that she is interviewing for.

Surprised they didn't ask her questions on her brothers former occupation was. Maybe they did forgot to listen.
 

FlyersFan76

Well-known member
Honestly, I would have rather seen Bowe get a pardon than Manning get the commutation.

This feels more like further promulgation of the LGBT-military agenda than it does a statement on appropriate justice for Manning's crimes.

I am not a military guy but I wouldn't be surprised if Bowe's former platoon mates said the same thing.
 
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